And come July 13, they may need to dig even deeper. That’s the next Bank of Canada meeting, when it’s widely expected that BoC will make its largest rate hike yet this year: 75 basis points.

“If you’re looking to buy a house in Canada, it’s imperative to speak to a mortgage broker and lock in at the current rates,” says Michael Carney, Director of Business Development at HouseSigma, and an active realtor in the GTA. “Otherwise, you risk grappling with the highest stress test Canadians have ever faced,” he adds.

Bank of Canada’s overnight lending rate currently sits at 1.5 per cent. It hasn’t been above 1.75 per cent since the stress test was introduced in 2016. 

“If the Bank of Canada raises rates a further 0.75 per cent like anticipated, we’re looking at an overnight lending rate of 2.25 per cent. That means Canada’s stress test will be in uncharted territories,” explains Carney.

What is Canada’s mortgage stress test, exactly?

Simply put, borrowers need to show that they can afford to pay their mortgage at a higher rate. They need to either qualify at 5.25 per cent, or two per cent higher than what the bank is offering, whichever is greater. (The stress test used to apply to mortgages with down payments of less than 20 per cent. As of June 2021, it applies to all mortgages).

Let’s compare with the last time BoC rate was 1.5 per cent.

Even at the same BoC rate, you can see that banks today are offering higher rates.

Effects of the mortgage stress test if Bank of Canada rate hits 2.25%

The last time BoC rate was 2.25 per cent was back in April 2009. Even then, the discounted mortgage rate was only 3.85 per cent. And there was no stress test to pass in 2009.

If BoC does indeed hike rates 75 basis points, the stress test will truly put stress not just on new borrowers, but also people whose mortgages are up for renewal.

This is where Hao Li, a Vancouver-based broker with HouseSigma, sees a possible stress test of seven per cent or more if BoC lives up to speculation.

“For people who are up for renewal, they should ideally shop around for the best rate – but that means facing the higher stress test. The only way to avoid that is to stay with their current lender, but that could mean paying a higher rate than necessary,” explains Li. 

“In fact, some people may already have shopped around and found that they couldn’t pass the higher stress test, leading them to renew with their current lender at a less attractive rate. This could happen in cases where buyers had stretched themselves to their budgetary limits when they first purchased their home,” adds Li.

How does the mortgage stress test affect buying power?

Here’s a simplified scenario (mortgage amortized over 25 years)

July 2017: You need a $500,000 mortgage. At a stress test of 5.25 per cent, you need to show you can make payments of $2,980 every month. 

July 2022: For that same $500,000 mortgage, a stress test of 7 per cent means you need to show you can make payments of $3,502 every month. 

“As the Canadian real estate market cools, many buyers may be looking to take advantage of lower pricing and increased inventory, but the stress test will present a significant challenge for first time homebuyers,” explains Carney. “Buyers will either make up the difference with a higher down payment, or reduce their budget. 

Looking to stay informed on how the real estate market is doing in BC and Ontario? Sign up with HouseSigma. Our AI pulls real-time data for the most up-to-date market trends and sold data.

The post Stressing Canada’s Mortgage Stress Test appeared first on HouseSigma.

But it seems home buyers are opting out of actually buying – and opting in to rent.

Home buyers are waiting for more drops in Vancouver real estate market

HouseSigma’s AI-powered platform tracks Metro Vancouver’s real estate market.

“Even with the market cool down, Vancouver is still one of the least affordable places in the world,”  says Hao Li, a broker with HouseSigma. “In addition, home buyers now want to wait and see if the prices drop even more, so they are renting instead.”

While Vancouver’s listed-to-sold properties ratio dropped by 52 percent year over year, rental demands are increasing. In fact, Vancouver now has the lowest rental vacancy rate across all of Canada’s major cities – going down by 53 percent between 2021 and  2022.

In Vancouver’s market cooldown, rental prices are going up

Less availability means higher prices. HouseSigma reports that while Vancouver’s median property prices are down as much as 28.3 percent since February, MLS data compiled by HouseSigma shows Vancouver rental prices increased, from $2500 in June 2021 to $3400 in June 2022. 

“The rental market in Metro Vancouver has always been competitive. But we’re seeing a trend now where buyers who can afford to buy are choosing not to buy. Instead, they are biding their time to see if prices go down further,” explains Li. “These buyers have to live somewhere, adding pressure to the rental market.”

Looking for real-time data on Vancouver’s real estate market? Sign up for a HouseSigma account.

Get free, instant access to all the real estate data our AI compiles. Create a watchlist, track properties, and see how homes are moving in the neighbourhoods that interest you.

The post In Vancouver’s market cooldown, rental prices are going up appeared first on HouseSigma.

If you thought rising rates would have a temporary cooling effect on the housing market – well, time to rethink. Looks like ‘temporary’ is turning into a bonafide trend.

Amid this unpredictability, Canadian home buyers can look to our AI-powered real estate platform to track the housing trends. This time around, we’re looking at how much Metro Vancouver home prices have dropped in June.

It’s more good news for buyers, but not so much for sellers. Last month, medians* dipped a further two per cent from May. Averages for all property types have slid 13.5 per cent since February. But certain municipalities stand out.

Metro Vancouver municipalities see median* home prices drop significantly.

Leading the way is Delta, with median* home prices dropping 28.3 per cent since February. Surrey and Maple Ridge aren’t far behind, down 23.4 per cent and 23.2 per cent respectively.

In Delta, the average price for all property types fell to $1.165M, down from a 15-year high of $1.625M in February. In Surrey, median* prices went from $1.1M in February to $843K in June. In Maple Ridge, the average went from $1.25M to $960K. 

“Median prices have been dropping consistently and considerably since the Bank of Canada started hiking interest rates earlier this year,” says Hao Li, a Vancouver-based broker with HouseSigma. 

“We’re in a market where buyers are feeling emboldened. More and more buyers are holding the upper hand in real estate transactions, sensing that there’s an opportunity here to successfully negotiate with sellers for a lower purchase price.”

How Metro Vancouver’s overall real estate market is shaping up

In BC’s cooling real estate market, potential home sellers may be wondering how much their property is worth. The numbers are not in their favour.

“The dropping percentages are drastic, but remember that we’re still in correction-mode,” explains Li. “During the pandemic, interest rates were at an all time low, and there was a real estate buying frenzy. It led to over-inflated home prices.

“The year over year percentage nearing zero means we’re approaching June 2021 prices. Most would still consider those prices high and unaffordable.”

So far, Metro Vancouver median* prices for all property types have dropped from $1.028M in February to $889K in June.

Year over year though, median* prices in Metro Vancouver are still up, but just 0.5 per cent. 

In June 2021, the median* price for all properties averaged $885K. In June 2022, the average was $889K.

Bank of Canada may hike rates again

Canada is doing what it can to stem the tide of inflation. The Bank of Canada has been systematically raising rates since March, and it’s due to meet again July 13.

It’s widely expected that BoC will raise the rate once more at that meeting. Canada’s inflation stands at 7.7 per cent, the highest it’s been since 1983. Back then, the overnight lending rate was close to 10 per cent. The current lending rate is a mere fraction of that, at 1.5 per cent.

“A July interest rate hike could potentially dial back Metro Vancouver home prices to pre-pandemic levels. It all depends on how aggressive the Bank of Canada is willing to go with rates to battle inflation,” adds Li.

*Median home price is the midpoint of sales prices where an equal number of properties were sold above and below this sales price; whereas Benchmark home price is the estimate of the value of a “typical” home in a community, based on the most popular combination of features, e.g., age, size, number of bedrooms and bathrooms.

Are the rising interest rates a major factor in your home-buying journey? Stay up-to-date with a HouseSigma account. Get free, instant access to all the real estate data our AI compiles. Create a watchlist, track properties, and see how homes are moving in the neighbourhoods that interest you.

The post Metro Vancouver Median Home Prices Down 13.5% Since February appeared first on HouseSigma.

That’s why at HouseSigma, we’ve enhanced our school zones and demographics features for those looking to buy a family home in Vancouver.

“With interest rates cooling the Vancouver real estate market, families suddenly have an opportunity this summer to be more selective about their forever family home,” says Hao Li, a Vancouver-based broker with HouseSigma. “They can take time weighing the factors that are most important to them in a family home.”

“Parents want the best education for their kids. We’ve made it easier for them to find a home that meets this need,” says Hao Li, Vancouver-based broker with HouseSigma. “Families can now see all the properties that fall within a school’s district, as well as that school’s rating.”

How to find a Vancouver family home that suits your needs

On HouseSigma’s Map Search view, click on the little red hat icon at the bottom right on App or the red School button at the top left of the map on Desktop. Toggle to see schools, and then zero in on the school of your choice.

Take a look at our example of Shaughnessy Elementary. When you click on the school, it immediately highlights the school zone. 

Now, you have an instant visual of all the for-sale homes that fall within the school’s boundaries.

Clicking on the school goes beyond just the basic information like the school type and board. HouseSigma’s AI uses reported test scores to create an annual rating for schools in Vancouver, dating back to 2015. Families can compare the school’s performance over the last seven years.

Find the perfect neighbourhood for your new family home

To support a family’s pursuit of the perfect Vancouver home, HouseSigma also compiles demographic data from Statistics Canada.

“Every property has StatsCan data that includes households with children, the percentage of rentals in the neighbourhood, average age, household income, and so on,” adds Li. 

“Data like this is perfect for say, young families who are hoping their children can grow up with neighbourhood friends. They can narrow their search to look at communities with more kids and fewer rentals, meaning less turnover.”

Enhancing these features means that those looking for a family home in Vancouver can have the school and community information they need, right at their fingertips.

The Bank of Canada started increasing its overnight lending rate back in March to combat inflation. The rate currently stands at 1.50%. BoC meets again on July 13th, 2022 to discuss another potential hike.

“We simply don’t know how high rates will go. There’s speculation that BoC will raise rates as high as three percent to stem the tide of inflation. Families locking in a rate before the next BoC meeting may get the best rate available to them for the foreseeable future,” says Li.

Are you in the market for a family home? Sign up for a free HouseSigma account and to get the most comprehensive real estate information to make the best real estate purchasing decision.

The post Find Your Next Home Using School Zones and Demographics Features appeared first on HouseSigma.

HouseSigma’s AI analyzes historical data from real estate boards in BC and compiles data from June 2021 to June 20, 2022. Here is a look at the communities in Vancouver, West Vancouver, and North Vancouver that experience the biggest median detached home price drop year over year.

*Rolling medians on our reports can vary slightly due to HouseSigma’s real time data

**We could list every city and every neighbourhood in a blog post, but the post would be quite long! Please visit our Market Trends page for the communities that interest you to get the latest data.

Vancouver’s Shaughnessy had median detached home values drop by 25% percent. West Vancouver’s British Properties dropped 16%. And in North Vancouver, Edgemont saw its detached home prices dip 12%.

“Shaughnessy and British Properties are well-recognized among Metro Vancouver residents as ‘luxury’ home markets. To see these neighbourhoods experiencing the biggest median home price dips within their cities is a little surprising,” says Hao Li, a broker with HouseSigma.

“Luxury home markets tend to be more immune to interest rate hikes,” Li explains. “Buyers in these areas are likely not salary dependent. They probably have multiple sources of income and have kept a close relationship with the bank. So the likelihood of the bank granting them a mortgage will be higher based on their assets, not salary level.”

“That being said, when you see areas like Shaughnessy or British Properties drop double digits, you can’t help but pay attention to what’s happening to the housing market as a whole,” adds Li.

“Keep in mind, in affluent home markets, there tend to be fewer properties making up the overall picture,” adds Li. “This means averages and medians could change significantly based on just one or two sales. The advantage of HouseSigma’s platform is that you can find hyper-specific information on the communities you’re interested in, and see how properties are faring in those areas.”

Looking at the broader picture, West Vancouver has experienced a 12% drop in overall detached home prices year over year. But Vancouver and North Vancouver are still ahead year over year, at 35% and 19% growth, respectively.

“Seeing Vancouver’s median detached home prices still up 35 percent year over year, it makes you wonder just how high rates need to go before those averages hit the negative mark,” adds Li.

The Bank of Canada’s next meeting is July 13th. The BoC will decide then if it will raise its overnight lending rate for the fourth time this year. The rate currently stands at 1.5%. BoC started raising rates in March to combat inflation.

Are you looking to buy, sell, or invest in a property? Sign up with HouseSigma and start searching for your next home on your own terms. Our AI updates stats in real time, giving you the most up-to-date information in the communities you’re interested in.

We’re constantly adding to the site’s features, in our attempt to make your real estate journey a transparent one.

The post Wealthy Communities in Metro Vancouver are dipping appeared first on HouseSigma.

Many buyers had already locked in a lower rate at the beginning of the year. Today’s data is giving us a wider glance at the full effect of rising rates on BC’s real estate market.

Here are highlights from the latest real estate data compiled by HouseSigma (as of June 1st):

New Westminster (-14.71%) and Port Moody (-11.48%) join Surrey (-14.21%), Maple Ridge (-14.84%), and Langley (-12.00%) in experiencing double-digit dips in median detached home prices.

“We’re now starting to see the full effect of rising interest rates on buyers and sellers’ habits,” says Hao Li, a broker with HouseSigma.  “These double digit dips in detached home averages in areas like Surrey and Maple Ridge highlight the pullback that’s happening in BC’s market.”

The median sold price of all property types in Greater Vancouver for May stands at $922K, which is down 12.11% since February.

Listings are also sitting on the market longer. In May, the average was 32 days. Back in February, before BoC started raising rates, listings were on the market an average of just 9 days. That means listings are sitting 71.9% longer.

“This is an indication that buyers are taking their time, and no longer feel rushed into buying a property,” says Hao Li, a broker with HouseSigma. “They’re realizing that if they wait, they may either see a drop in price, or find a property that ticks off more boxes.”

“An increasing number of listings are being terminated, meaning they haven’t sold during a specified time,” says Li.

“There are a few reasons why a listing gets terminated. One reason is the ‘offer day’ scenario. If the seller doesn’t get an attractive offer that day, the listing will get terminated then relisted as a new listing to once again attract new potential buyers. The seller’s agent may then decide to relist the property. Another reason for a termination is simply that the seller has decided to remove the property from the market, maybe because it has sat too long, or maybe because the seller wants to wait for the market to improve.”

“Buyers scrambled to find a property during the pandemic, raising prices at a pace we’ve never seen before. Since the Bank of Canada started raising rates, buyers have steadily taken a more ‘wait-and-see’ approach to buying a home, and sellers have had to adjust their sale price expectations.”

The Bank of Canada has hinted that it could raise rates to 3% or more to target the country’s rising inflation. Sign up to HouseSigma to get real-time data on real estate and keep track of how rising rates are affecting the market. You can count on HouseSigma’s proprietary AI to compile the most up-to-date estimates on home values, market trends, and investor reports

The post Full Effect of Rising Rates Hitting Metro Vancouver Cities appeared first on HouseSigma.

Conclusion

After an unseasonably hot winter market, the Greater Vancouver is beginning to show signs of cooling this spring. The median price for all property types in the Greater Vancouver has decreased from $1.04 million in February to $960K in April, but we can also see that not all property types and municipalities are being affected equally. 

Detached Homes Surrey and Maple Ridge dropping by more the 10% from February to April, while Burnaby and West Vancouver have moderate increases in median price, 1.3% and 2.5% respectively. Certain communities have increased their price dramatically over the same period with New Westminster outperforming other municipalities with a 9.12% increase in median price.

Terminated Listings have increased dramatically, with 2,488 terminated listings in February to 4,256 terminated listings in April, an increase of 71% with many of these terminated listings then relisted back on the market at a lower price to attract new buyers. To better measure the true days on market for these relisted properties, we’ve aggregated the days on market for any listing that was terminated and relisted within 6 months. When comparing February to April, we’ve seen the Aggregated Days on Market increase by 144% from 9 days to 22 days. During the same period, available inventory has increased 55% from 7,487 to 11,597 active listings.  

This showcases that BC is in a rapidly changing marketplace, and prices are not acting uniformly across Greater Vancouver. However, vigilant buyers are likely to find more value as inventory levels continue to rise.

The post Greater Vancouver Median Home Prices Fall, but Not All Communities Feel the Chill appeared first on HouseSigma.