New HouseSigma data shows that in August 2026, 79.3% of Greater Toronto Area home sales closed below the seller’s final asking price. Only 17.7% went above list price, and 3.0% landed exactly on it (see infographic below).

However, the discount varies by property type. Detached houses and condo apartments both sold at a median of about 3.2% below asking in August. Attached homes, meaning townhouses, semi-detached houses, and link homes, came in at 2.21%, a full point better than either.

Median prices

Of 4,855 home sales in August, the overall median GTA sale price was $855,000, down 1.16% from July and down 4.79% from $898,000 in August 2025.

• Detached homes had a median price of $1,140,000, down 0.44% from July and 3.39% lower than a year earlier.
• Attached homes came in at $813,500, down 1.39% over the month and 4.46% over the year.
• Condo apartments went for a median of $530,000, down 1.94% from July and 6.77% below August 2025.

Condos fell furthest over the month and over the year, detached held up best, and attached sat between them.

Sale vs list prices

The typical GTA home buyer in August paid $24,000 less than the list price, a median discount of 2.97%.

The median variance by home type:

• Detached: 3.26% below asking
• Condo apartment: 3.21% below asking
• Attached: 2.21% below asking

Attached homes sit in the middle of the price range but take the smallest discount of the three types. Buyers shopping that segment have less room to negotiate than the regional 2.97% figure implies.

Regional breakdown

Sellers gave up the most ground at the outer edges of the GTA region. In Uxbridge, 90.5% of August sales closed below asking, followed by Caledon at 88.3%, Halton Hills at 87.7%, Oakville at 86.8% and Georgina at 85.1%. It’s worth noting that Uxbridge recorded only 21 qualifying sales, so its lead is fragile: one different outcome moves it by several points.

Ajax and Markham were the region’s most competitive markets, with the smallest proportions (65.8% and 69.9%, respectively) of sales closing below list price. Sixteen of the 26 municipalities that we measured (which must have had at least 20 sales in August) sat above the GTA-wide figure of 79.3%.

Outlier sale prices

Four August sales ran well clear of the regional pricing patterns.

A ripe-for-redevelopment, five-bedroom detached house at 36 Galley Avenue in Toronto was listed at $1,099,000 and sold for $1,700,000, 54.7% above asking and the largest percentage overshoot in the region. And newly built, architectural-award-winning detached home in Toronto that looks more like an art gallery than a residence sold for $23,500,000, $1.5 million over ask and the largest dollar premium of the month.

Discounts ran deep at the other end of the spectrum. Another redevelopment opportunity, this three-bedroom detached bungalow in Markham was listed at $1,999,999 and sold for $1,500,000, 25% below asking and the steepest percentage discount on any house in the region in August. A four-bedroom golf-course-community home in Etobicoke was listed at $4,650,000 and sold for $3,700,000, a shortfall of $950,000 and the largest dollar discount on a house in the month (aside from farmland-based deals).

What it all means for buyers and sellers

For buyers, what you can negotiate depends more on the type of home and the municipality than on the regional figure. A detached house in Caledon or Halton Hills sits in the part of the market where sellers are conceding most readily, and opening at the asking price there leaves money on the table. A townhouse or semi is a different negotiation, with roughly a third less room built into the typical outcome, and buyers in Ajax or Markham should expect competition rather than a guaranteed discount.

Sellers should price against their own home type and municipality rather than the regional median sale price, or with the expectation that it will see the regional median discount. A detached house priced as though that regional median figures apply to it will likely sit longer and take a larger cut in the end. Owners of attached homes face the lightest discounting of the three types and have room to hold firmer.

Check out the full Greater Toronto August 2026 PriceWatch infographic below for more details and breakdowns by area and property type. Mouseover or touch the price chart points to reveal the full data.

The post Infographic: Four in five GTA homes sold below asking in August, with attached giving up the least appeared first on HouseSigma.

HouseSigma recorded 5,514 total sales across the GTA’s 28 municipalities in July 2026, down 12.9% from June and 6.8% below July 2025 (see full infographic, below). July 2026 ranks among the weakest Julys in HouseSigma’s records, which run back to 2003.

Despite the slow sales, buyers had less to choose from than they did a year ago. Sellers pulled back even harder than buyers did, with fewer homes going on market in July, meaning a larger share of the homes that were available ended up selling.

Home sales by property type

Every property type lost transactional ground in July. Detached sales fell to 2,465, down 15.2% from June. Attached homes, which combine freehold townhouses, semi-detached, condo townhouses and link homes, came in at 1,543, down 10.2%. Condo apartments recorded 1,415 sales, down 12.5%. Some of the June-to-July gap is seasonal, given that activity typically eases as summer sets in.

It’s worth noting that detached properties account for roughly 45% of GTA transactions, so when that segment slows, the overall count inevitably follows.

The year-over-year picture is milder than the monthly one. July 2025 saw 5,919 total sales, so this July came in 6.8% lower. By home type, detached sales were down 3.8% year over year, attached sales were down 9.3% from a year ago, and condo sales dropped 9.9% over the year.

Median prices by home type

The overall median sale price was $870,000 in July, down 3.3% from June and 4.4% from July 2025. That figure is the lowest July median HouseSigma has recorded since 2020, when it sat at $810,000. Every July from 2021 through 2025 came in higher, peaking at $979,000 in 2023.

Detached homes sold for a median of $1,140,000 in July, down 3.5% from June and 5.0% from a year ago. Attached homes came in at $828,750, down 2.5% from the previous month and 4.7% over the year. Condo apartments held at $542,000, essentially flat against June at a 0.1% decline, and down 4.1% year over year.

Listing days on market

The typical active listing in the GTA had been on the market 34 days in July, up from 29 in June and 31 in July 2025.

Property days on market, which also counts time accumulated before a listing was delisted and quickly relisted, reached 62 days. That compares with 56 in June and 61 last July.

Both measures describe listings currently sitting on the market rather than how quickly sold homes found buyers. The July increase is the largest single-month move in either figure since January, and it reflects a market where the homes that remain available are taking longer to move.

New and active inventory

Active listings stood at 25,677 at the end of July, down 4.3% from June and 22.3% below July 2025. Inventory has now retreated to roughly where it sat in July 2024, erasing the build-up that defined last summer.

New listings fell further still. GTA sellers brought 14,387 homes to market in July, down 16.4% from June and 17.3% from a year earlier.

Put those together and the ratio of sales to available listings, which measures the proportion of homes on the market that actually sold that month, reached 21.5% in July. A year earlier it was 17.9%, and in July 2024 it was 21.2%.

So, while fewer homes sold this July than last, a larger share of what was for sale found a buyer. Listings moved off the market faster than they did a year ago. Demand didn’t surge; the pool of homes to choose from just shrank.

Buyer attention also shifted outward geographically. The five GTA municipalities drawing the most listing activity in July, measured by HouseSigma’s community popularity score, were Uxbridge, Aurora, King, Oakville and Whitby. The City of Toronto itself ranked ninth. The score tracks online engagement with listings rather than transaction volume, so smaller communities can rank highly on a modest pool of listings.

What it all means for buyers and sellers

Through the spring, the GTA’s real estate market numbers were pointing up. Sales climbed every month from February through May, from 3,672 to 6,517. The median price rose alongside them, reaching $920,000 in May, its highest point of the year.

July’s trends reverse those gains. Sales fell on both a monthly and annual basis, the median price reached a six-year July low, and listings sat longer. But supply fell too.

Buyers have less to choose from than they did a year ago, but they still have enough leverage to push median prices down across all three property types. Shrinking supply would normally firm prices up, but it has not done so yet.

Where that tension breaks is what will decide where prices go from here. If listings stay as scarce as they were in July, the downward pressure on prices should ease. If sellers return in volume in early fall, while buyers stay cautious, prices likely have further to drop.

Check out the full Greater Toronto July 2026 MarketWatch infographic below for more details and breakdowns by area and property type. Mouseover or touch the price chart points to reveal the full data.

The post Infographic: GTA home sales fell in July, but inventory fell faster appeared first on HouseSigma.

In June, a larger share of the homes on the market across the GTA sold than a year earlier, and yet the typical sale price kept drifting lower. That pairing says more about where the market is heading than the raw sales count on its own.

A bigger proportion of homes are selling

HouseSigma tracks the sales-to-active-listings ratio (see interactive infographic below), which is the share of active listings that sell in a given month. In June it came in at 23.6% across the GTA, up from 18% in June 2025. The ratio had dipped to 15.7% back in January before climbing through the spring and settling into the low twenties. In plain terms, sellers who had a home listed in June had a better chance of finding a buyer than they would have a year ago.

Sales volume tells a similar story. HouseSigma recorded 6,334 GTA sales in June, up 3.1% from a year earlier and down 2.8% from May. Anyone comparing figures will see a higher number from TRREB, which reported roughly 6,770 sales and a 9.4% annual gain. The gap is a matter of scope: HouseSigma’s count covers the Greater Toronto Area shown on our Market Trends page, while TRREB’s board total now folds in several outer-Ontario markets recently added to its MLS system.

Prices kept easing, led by detached homes

Prices moved the other way, and the decline ran across all three home types. HouseSigma’s overall median sale price for the GTA was $899,900 in June, down 2.2% from May and 5.3% below June 2025.

The monthly slip was led by detached homes, where the median eased 4.0% to $1,181,000, leaving it 5.5% lower than a year ago. Attached homes were flat month over month at $850,000 but were down 4.5% from June 2025. Condo apartments edged down 0.9% to $542,800 from May, off 7.7% year over year, marking a continued decline in this segment.

Buyers still have plenty to choose from

The rising sales and declining prices can sit side by side because buyers are active without being cornered. There were 26,826 active listings at the end of June and another 17,211 added during the month. That’s enough supply that a buyer who walks away from one home still has plenty of others to consider. While terminated and expired listings rose month over month, they were still well below last June, down about 23% from a year earlier.

The average GTA home spent 29 days on market in June, and 56 days on average when accounting for homes that were taken down and quickly relisted.

Buyers are buying, but they are taking their time and negotiating as they go.

What it means heading into the second half on 2026

For sellers, the practical takeaway is that closing a sale in this market comes down to pricing to it, not waiting for it. For buyers, the rising share of listings that sell is an early sign that today’s wide-open choice could narrow if new listings stay soft through the summer.

The share of homes selling has been the steadier growth signal this year than the month-to-month adjustments in price. Historically, HouseSigma data has found that the sales-to-active listings index is often a precursor to price changes. This could be the number to keep an eye on as the second half of 2026 gets going.

Check out the full Greater Toronto June 2026 MarketWatch infographic below for more details and breakdowns by area and property type. Mouseover or touch the price chart points to reveal the full data.

The post Infographic: More GTA listings are finding buyers, even as prices keep easing appeared first on HouseSigma.

In May, about seven in 10 homes sold for less than their asking price in Ontario and Alberta, and roughly eight in 10 in British Columbia. Across all three provinces, the average sale closed about two to three percent below list. Sellers, on the whole, are taking less than they hoped for.

The other market signals point the same way. Listings are sitting on the market longer than they were a year ago, in every major market from Metro Vancouver to the GTA. There’s more to choose from, too: Metro Vancouver alone had more than 20,000 homes for sale in May. And the bidding-war years of 2021 and 2022 are firmly behind us, at least for now.

So far, so good for buyers. But does that mean you always have negotiating room when making an offer? Is lowballing a solid blanket strategy these days?

Here’s how to tell where you actually have the upper hand — and where you don’t — before you make an offer.

“Buyer’s market” doesn’t mean every home is a deal

If you’re house-hunting this year, the broad conditions are working in your favour, but that’s not the whole story. That’s simply the broad market climate, not a guarantee for any one home. Even now, about 20-30% of homes (depending on your region) still sell at asking price or above, because enough buyers wanted them.

The trouble is that a market report can’t tell you which group the home in front of you belongs to. If you walk into a hot-commodity listing assuming you have the upper hand, you can lose it. If you walk into a quiet one without realizing how quiet it is, you might leave money on the table.

So before you make an offer, it’s worth checking where you stand on that specific home. Two numbers on every HouseSigma listing page make that very easy.

Number one: the listing’s individual popularity score

On every listing (below the comparable sold listings), there’s an individual popularity score for that home. This score rates a home out of 100 based on how much attention it’s drawing, through views and saves, compared with similar listings nearby. A high score means other buyers are watching this home, and low score means they aren’t watching it as much as other listings.

On its own, this score is a useful first read on whether you’re likely to face competition. However, attention can be nothing but noise. A home can pile up views because it’s overpriced, unusual, been shared on social media, or simply new. It doesn’t necessarily mean anyone’s actually about to make an offer. So treat the score as the start of the picture, not the whole of it.

Number two: how long it’s really been listed

Days on market tells you how long the listing has been up. This information, paired with the popularity score, is much more powerful. A home drawing steady attention that still hasn’t sold is telling you the interest isn’t converting into offers, which usually points to a price the market hasn’t accepted yet.

However, it’s worth noting that if a seller takes a stale listing down and quickly puts it back up, the days-on-market clock resets to zero. A home that’s been struggling for months can look like it only hit the market this morning.

That’s what property days on market is for. It counts the full time a property has spent trying to sell, and it doesn’t reset when a home is delisted and quickly relisted. So when a listing shows only a handful of days on market, check the property days on market beside it.

If the two match, the home really is new. If the property number is higher, you’re looking at a listing that’s been around for a while, was terminated (or expired) and reposted. That might be with a new price (check the listing history tab), or just to look fresh.

As a buyer, that data is one of the most useful signals you have. A home with a high property days on market has struggled to find a buyer, whatever the current listing says, and that often means a more motivated seller and real room to negotiate.

Reading the numbers together

Here’s how the four combinations of popularity score and property days on market play out for you as a buyer:

• Low popularity score (below 70), on the market a while: your strongest position. Few buyers are circling, and you have a concrete reason to make a confident offer under asking.
• High score, but still unsold after several weeks: the early attention never converted, usually a sign the price is too high. Watch it; a price cut may be coming, and your opening with it. If you’re really interested, an under-asking offer may work.
• High score, only just listed: the ambiguous case. Early attention can be real competition or just the noise we mentioned above, and you might not be able to tell which yet. Is it an unusual property? Did it get shared on social media because of a quirk in pricing or the home itself? Check the asking price against recent comparable sales — if it’s sharp, and the home has no obvious quirks that would account for the attention, treat the interest as likely real and get your number ready to move. If the price is above the comps, the attention may fade and the home may sit. Don’t let the score alone push you into overpaying.
• Low score, just listed: too early to read. Check back in a week or two and see whether interest builds. If it doesn’t, this takes us up to the first bullet point.

Check before you make any offer

When you find a home you like, take a minute to look at both the home’s popularity score and its Property Days on Market, side by side. Ask whether the attention matches the time on market, and what that tells you about competition. Then decide whether this is a home to push on with a lower offer, or one to chase before someone else does.

None of this replaces a good agent or a close look at comparable sales nearby. It simply gives you a faster, clearer read on your own position, so you’re not guessing.

Sammy Kohn, a leading HouseSigma agent in the Greater Toronto Area, said, “It’s a buyer’s market, but exceptions do happen. A unit my buyer client loved, sold before we could see it. It was priced appropriately from the get-go with competitive cost per square foot. Clearly the seller was well informed.

“I also see that a first offer often triggers more offers, even with homes that have a high days on market, confirming buyers taking a wait-and-see approach until another offer stimulates their buying decision.

“I always tell my buyers: if you love a place and would regret seeing it go to someone else at a price you would have paid, it’s time to act.”

Making it work for you

It’s always worth remembering that a buyer’s market only hands you leverage on average. It doesn’t spread that leverage evenly. The homes where you have the most room are the ones nobody else has noticed yet; the homes where you have the least room are the ones already drawing a crowd.

Knowing which is which, listing by listing, is what turns a general advantage into a better offer, and often a better price.

The post How to spot your negotiating room on any home purchase in 2026 appeared first on HouseSigma.

This market quirk sits alongside the Bank of Canada’s June 10 decision to hold its policy rate at 2.25% for a fifth straight time. With borrowing costs steady, what’s interesting is less about rates than about which property type offers the better deal, and in May that was condos.

The median GTA condo apartment sold for $549,000 in May 2026 (see infographic below). That’s down 7.7% from May 2025, the steepest decline of the three home types; detached homes, by comparison, slipped just 2.3% annually. Condos also sold for a median 3.21% below asking price, the widest gap of any home type.

The middle of the market held firmest compared with the price sellers hoped to achieve. Attached homes such as townhouses and semis sold at a median of 1.87% below asking, the closest to list of any segment, and at a median price of $853,000. Detached homes sat between the two, typically selling 2.65% under asking and at a median of $1,230,000. Across all property types, 73.9% of GTA homes sold below their list price in May, with the typical sale closing about 2.56%, or roughly $20,000, under asking.

The market as a whole is firming, even as it sits below last year. The overall median sale price was $922,050 in May, up from April and higher across all three home types, though still 4.4% below May 2025. As in much of the country, monthly prices have been edging up while year-over-year figures stay negative, so the gap with last year is closing rather than widening.

The month’s extreme sales vs list prices

The condo market is not uniformly offering deep discounts. The single largest jump from list to sale price in May was a two-bedroom North York condo apartment listed at $399,000 that sold for $660,000, 65% over asking. It’s proof that the right unit at the right price still draws a crowd even in the most-discounted segment. The biggest premium in dollar terms was a Toronto semi-detached home that sold $711,000 above its $1,599,000 list price.

The steepest discounts went the other way, at the top of the market: a North York detached bungalow listed at just under $3.75 million sold for $2,650,000, 29% below asking, which is the month’s biggest percentage drop. And the biggest dollar cut was seen by a five-bedroom luxury home, also in North York, which sold for a whopping $1.45 million under its asking price of $8,995,000.

What it all means for buyers and sellers

For buyers, those looking for a condo are getting not only the lowest entry point but also the most room to negotiate, while move-up buyers shopping the firmer middle should expect to pay much closer to asking.

For sellers, the lesson runs in the same direction, since condo sellers in particular are meeting buyers well below their initial price, and the homes that move are the ones priced to recent comparable sales rather than to last year’s market.

With the Bank of Canada keeping borrowing costs steady, neither side is waiting on cheaper money any more, and the task now is reading where each part of the market actually stands, which in May meant three very different places.

Check out the full GTA May 2026 PriceWatch infographic below for more details and breakdowns by area and property type. Mouseover or touch the price chart points to reveal the full data.

Find all your market trends data for the Greater Toronto Area here – and keep up to date with our Ontario blog page here.

The post Infographic: With rates on hold and prices down, the GTA’s cheapest homes come with deepest discounts appeared first on HouseSigma.

Detached home sales in the Greater Toronto Area rose 6.8% year-over-year in April 2026, even as the typical detached buyer paid below asking. That combination, more deals closing and more of them at a discount, looks contradictory at first. The data shows it isn’t, because asking prices were lower YOY too.

The median detached listing price across the GTA was $1,200,000 in April 2026, down from $1,279,900 a year earlier. That’s a 6.2% drop in what sellers were willing to ask as a starting point. Attached and condo sellers moved similarly: median list prices for both fell about 5.5% to 5.8% YOY.

Sale prices fell almost as much. The median detached sale closed at $1,200,000 in April 2026, compared with $1,275,000 in April 2025, a 5.9% drop.

Finding more middle ground for transactions

So most of what looks like a “deeper discount” story is actually a “lower list prices” story. Within each transaction, buyers did push for slightly more off the asking price — the typical detached sale closed 2.86% below list this April, versus 2.02% below list last April — but that 0.84-percentage-point shift is small compared to the 6% reduction in list prices.

The result of this is more middle ground. With less daylight between asking prices and what buyers were prepared to pay, more transactions found a place to close. This is likely a key reason why detached sales rose 6.8% YOY, and total GTA sales were up 3.5%.

“One likely factor in detached sales rising is that upsizers get a better deal in this market. With sale and listing prices lower across the board, the buyer may lose some dollars in the sale of their smaller home, but will gain more with deeper discounts on the larger home they are buying. In this market, it makes much more sense to upsize than to downsize from a house to a condo.”

Jeremy Bator, leading HouseSigma agent

Market outliers: Home sells for nearly a million over its $2M asking price

There were exceptions, including one striking one. A four-bedroom detached home in North Riverdale, Toronto, more than a century old, was listed on April 14 at $1,999,000 and sold just six days later for $2,952,000. That’s $953,000 over ask, the largest dollar over-bid in the GTA in April, and nearly the highest in percentage terms at 49.7% above list.

The list price wasn’t unusually low in terms of comps, yet this beautifully decorated home drew a buyer who valued it well above what similar homes had been fetching. And it shows us that this is a market where competitive pricing can still create a great result for the seller. What it doesn’t definitively do, however, is suggest that widespread detached bidding wars are coming back. Right now, it’s more of an exception to the rule.

The home that saw the largest percentage increase from list to sale price was this four-bedroom attached Toronto home, which looks ripe for renovating or redeveloping. It went for 51.4% over its $699K list price, selling for $1,058,000.

At the other end of the spectrum, the biggest dollar discount from asking was given to the buyer of this fabulous lakeside home in Oakville. The seller had been asking a whopping $15.5 million but the buyer paid $12.6 million. And the deepest percentage discount was a three-bedroom condo-townhouse that sold for $530K, which is more than a third less than the $799K asking price.

What this varied market means for buyers and sellers

For all buyers, the practical message is the same as it was last month, just with more confidence behind it: don’t be afraid to offer below ask. The math is on your side. More than seven in 10 detached buyers paid below list in April, with the typical discount running about $32,500 below the asking price. That said, the detached market warmed up in April so it’s possible these conditions may not remain this way for long. Condos are still selling for significantly below asking, and have condo sales have softened the most.

For sellers, the data points the same direction it has all year, only more so: list prices and recent comparable sold prices have moved closer together, and pricing that is aligned to recent comps will draw more activity than pricing aligned to last year’s expectations. Properties priced well still attract attention. Properties priced for a market that no longer exists tend to sit, drop, and then sell below where a sharper initial price would have landed them.

Check out the full GTA April 2026 PriceWatch infographic below for more details and breakdowns by area and property type. Mouseover or touch the price chart points to reveal the full data.

Find all your market trends data for the Greater Toronto Area here – and keep up to date with our Ontario blog page here.

The post Infographic: Does Toronto home selling for nearly $1M over $2M list price herald a detached market comeback? appeared first on HouseSigma.

Just 4,896 resale homes sold in the GTA in March 2026, as seen in the infographic below. For context, the 10-year average for March sales is 9,003, with this March coming in at only just over half that average. In fact, last month was the lowest March for sales in HouseSigma’s GTA data, which goes back to 2003 — lower even than the 2008/9 financial crisis.

The sluggish market continues to put downward pressure on prices. The median sale price across all GTA home types came in at $875,000 in March, only slightly lower than February’s $878,500 but down 7.4% from a year ago. All three property types sold for a lower median price, year-over-year: detached homes at $1,200,000 (-7.7%), attached at $850,000 (-8.1%), and condo apartments at $548,000 (-9.4%).

Lower listing counts but slow sales cycles

The mismatch between supply and demand is showing up clearly in days on market. Active listings took an average of 32 days to sell in March, down from 36 in February, which is a normal seasonal improvement. Property days on market, which captures the full picture of how long a home has actually been available (including any periods where it was briefly delisted and relisted), sits at 65 days. That gap between DOM and PDOM is evidence a lot of the home listings in the GTA have been around for a while.

Active listings at month-end reached 20,959 — up 9.6% from February, but down 19% from March 2025. That is because the 14,401 new listings in March mentioned above, which may be higher than February, are still down 17% from March 2025. It’s clear that both sides of the market are pulling back, with sellers clearly nervous that now is not a good time to offload their home (especially if they’re looking for a strong price).

Pent-up demand in the wings?

There may still be considerable demand waiting in the wings. After all, life goes on, and people still need to move and buy homes. Mortgage rate cuts over the past year have improved affordability on paper, and the reduction in home prices have improved it further still. But improving affordability and people actually buying are two different things, and the gap between them is visible in the data. Buyers aren’t uninterested — they’re uncertain, and uncertain buyers usually watch and wait.

Sammy Kohn, a leading HouseSigma agent in the GTA, said, “The rise in spring listings isn’t unusual, but the slower pace suggests a healthy recalibration. Some listings have stayed on longer, and buyers now have room to make thoughtful moves. Toronto’s long run as a sellers’ market needed this correction.”

Check out our interactive March 2026 GTA MarketWatch infographic, below, to see the full stats breakdown by property type and the hottest communities for listing activity. Just hover over or click on the charts to see the precise data.

Find all your market trends data for the Greater Toronto Area here – and keep up to date with our Ontario blog page here.

The post Infographic: GTA real estate market sees slowest March on record, with sales just over half the 10-year average appeared first on HouseSigma.

HouseSigma’s Market Temperature graphs measure something different: the absorption rate, which is the share of active listings that sell in a given month. It captures the live balance between supply and demand. You can find these Market Temperature graphs by scrolling down a little on any of our Market Trends pages, such as this Metro Vancouver page, this GTA page, and this Greater Calgary page. (You can also choose any other HouseSigma-covered geographic area, and filter by factors such as municipality, neighbourhood, and home type.)

When we examined five years of transaction data across Metro Vancouver, the Greater Toronto Area and Greater Calgary, a clear pattern emerged. The absorption rate doesn’t just describe current conditions — it often moves ahead of what sellers actually accept at the negotiating table, otherwise known as the sale-to-list-price ratio.

This means that the absorption rate can give us a clue about where prices are heading, because if we can predict that sellers will be forced into giving deeper discounts (or if they have the power to not accept discounts, or even force buyers to offer over list price) then we can predict what the overall typical sale prices will be.

A tale of three major markets

The pandemic buying frenzy of 2021 and early 2022 pushed absorption rates to extraordinary levels in all three urban areas, though the experience differed considerably between them.

In the GTA, demand was so intense during that period that monthly sales far outpaced the number of “active listings” — the count of available homes for sale at the end of the month. This can happen when homes that are being listed throughout the month are being snapped up, in addition to existing inventory, and never make it to the month-end inventory count.

Check out this graph below, with the blue line and left-side Y axis showing the absorption rate across the GTA as a whole over the past five years.

Metro Vancouver saw similarly elevated activity in 2021 and 2022, per the graph below, before also seeing a rapid decline that has led to today’s buyer’s market. Like in the GTA, there was a brief recovering mini-peak in 2023 before the slow period of mostly decline up to today.

If you examine the green line on those two graphs, with a measure on the right-side Y-axis, you can see the sale-to-list-price ratio — the median percentage of the asking price that sellers were getting in the actual sale. It’s clear that in both cities during that 2021-22 period, sellers weren’t just receiving offers at asking price (the 100% dotted red line); homes were typically closing at a price above asking, especially in the GTA for a prolonged period. However, this is clearly not the case today.

Calgary told a subtler version of the same story. The absorption rate climbed sharply, but even at peak heat, most transactions completed at or just above the asking price rather than dramatically over it.

Calgary’s market competitiveness has always expressed itself through speed and volume rather than the kind of overbidding that became common in Toronto and Vancouver. Record international and interprovincial migration drove housing demand in Calgary, with employment gains and relative affordability continuing to attract people to the province even amid high interest rates.

Does the absorption rate actually predict what comes next for prices?

To answer this accurately, we ran a statistical analysis testing whether the absorption rate (or “Market Temperature”) in a given month is more closely correlated with sale-to-list-price ratios in that same month, or in the months that follow. The answer depends on the market.

In the GTA and Greater Calgary, the absorption rate is genuinely predictive of rising or falling sale-to-list-price ratios. The correlation between this month’s absorption rate and next month’s median sale-to-list ratio is stronger than the concurrent relationship — meaning the absorption rate tends to move about a month ahead of negotiating outcomes in those cities.

Greater Vancouver Realtors’ historical analysis confirms the broader relationship between absorption rate and pricing, finding that downward pressure on home prices occurs when the absorption rate dips below 12% for a sustained period, while upward pressure tends to emerge when it surpasses 20%. In HouseSigma’s Metro Vancouver graph above, however, the correlations are nearly identical at every month, as the two metrics move together rather than one leading the other. Vancouver’s market appears to adjust faster — suggesting that sellers tend to change prices more quickly in response to changing absorption conditions, compressing the gap.

Jeremy Bator, a leading HouseSigma agent in the Lower Mainland of BC, observed, ““Metro Vancouver sellers don’t sit around waiting for the market to catch up — they adjust on the fly. With the region’s strong international influence, there’s an added layer of sophistication in how sellers read and react to market signals. It’s kind of like driving around here — hesitate for a second and someone’s already merged into your lane.”

Calgary’s second boom cycle

One of the most interesting findings from the five-year dataset is that Calgary ran a second complete boom cycle that Vancouver and the GTA did not. After cooling in late 2022, Calgary’s absorption rate surged again through 2023 and into early 2024, fuelled by continued interprovincial migration from British Columbia and Ontario. CMHC noted that roughly 70% of net interprovincial migration into Alberta was coming from B.C. and Ontario, as buyers priced out of those markets sought relative affordability in Calgary. The absorption rate and the median sale-to-list-price ratio both peaked again in spring 2024, with sellers once more commanding full asking price — and in each case the absorption rate’s climb preceded the improvement in sale-to-list outcomes by roughly a month, consistent with the statistical analysis.

That pattern then reversed. Calgary’s absorption rate has been falling steadily since mid-2024, and the sale-to-list-price ratio has tracked it downward. Sellers who were receiving full asking price 18 months ago are now accepting modest discounts.

Raj Sandhu, a leading HouseSigma agent in Calgary, said, “Calgary’s market has been one of the most resilient in the country over the past few years. However, as supply has caught up and interest rates remain a factor, we’re now seeing a clear cooling trend. The absorption rate has been a reliable leading signal. Once it started declining, we saw seller’s price expectations adjust shortly after.”

Where things stand now

All three markets are currently cooling, and in each the sale-to-list ratio is following the absorption rate down. Metro Vancouver’s absorption rate hit a five-year low in January 2026 and is still very muted. The GTA has been soft throughout 2025, with sellers consistently accepting below asking. Calgary, starting from a higher base, has cooled more recently but is now tracking the same direction.

The sales-to-active listings ratio in Metro Vancouver remains below the level that typically signals upward price pressure, indicating that downward pressure on pricing may persist if conditions do not tighten. The same observation holds in the GTA and Calgary.

Sammy Kohn, a leading HouseSigma agent in the GTA, warned that it is important to recognize statistics only paint part of the picture. He said, “‘I definitely look at stats, but lean more on client realities — it’s always case by case. That said, Toronto’s demand edging up right now means balanced absorption, which signal steady or rising prices ahead — and if it keeps buyers and sellers even, that’s a win for everyone.”

That said, stats are a useful part of the picture, as long as they’re taken in context. And for anyone trying to decide when to list or when to buy, the Market Temperature graph offers something the sale-price charts don’t: an early read on where negotiating conditions may be heading. In most markets, that signal tends to arrive before the shift shows up in what homes actually sell for, so it’s worth keeping an eye on it.

Follow your local Market Temperature and other data on our Market Trends pages, such as this Metro Vancouver page, this GTA page, and this Greater Calgary page.

The post Where is the market heading? Our interactive Market Temperature charts can help predict home prices appeared first on HouseSigma.

There have always been lots of perks to selling your home through HouseSigma, and that’s even truer now that we have a fantastic new deal on our listing fees.

Here are just five of the biggest reasons you should choose HouseSigma when selling your home.

1. Professional, expert, local agents you can trust

When you choose HouseSigma, you’re connected with professional local agents who know your market inside and out.

We maintain the highest standards through a rigorous screening and selection process. With ongoing professional development and training, we ensure that our agents stay at the forefront of industry knowledge.

Steven Yanni, HouseSigma’s managing broker for Ontario, said, “Our agents are the backbone of the experience. We’re selective about who joins the team, and we provide them with advanced tools. When our clients work with a HouseSigma agent, they’re getting someone who knows the local market and is held to a higher standard.”

2. Millions of users can easily see your “Featured Listing”

Most home listings you’ll see on HouseSigma are from the many other real estate brokerages out there, and there’s a LOT of noise. But when you sell with HouseSigma, your home listing will receive the coveted Featured Listing status on our website.

That means your listing will be promoted on the home page of HouseSigma’s mobile app and desktop site, surfacing it to HouseSigma’s two million-plus active users. It will get far more views on our website than other comparable non-featured listings! In the end, you are much more likely to find a buyer from the HouseSigma website than home sellers using other brokerages.

Steven Yanni added, “That’s a massive audience you just don’t get anywhere else.”

3. Listing fee of just 1.5% – or even lower if you bundle

Instead of the standard 3% commission for listing your home that most real estate agents charge, HouseSigma’s fee is just half that, at 1.5% commission. You’ll be saving many thousands of dollars compared with most listing fees!

For example, on a $800,000 home, if you use an agent who charges 3%, you’ll pay $24,000 in commission. With HouseSigma’s 1.5% listing fee, on the same home you’ll pay just $12,000.

What’s more, HouseSigma is now offering a bundle deal that means you pay only 1% listing fee* when selling your home, if your home is priced above $699,995 and you also buy your next home through one of our agents.

In this scenario, selling that $800,000 home in the example above will now cost you only $8,000 in commission. That’s a third of what the regular 3% commission will set you back.

4. High-quality marketing and promotion

We’ve all heard horror stories of agents who seem enthusiastic when they are first retained, and then fail to put any work into marketing or showing the home they have been hired to sell. Don’t worry. When you list your home with HouseSigma, the following services are all included as part of the package:

• Professional photography
• Marketing brochures
• Floor plans
• For-sale signage
• Open houses hosted by your agent
• Virtual tours

Your HouseSigma agent can also advise you on any additional services that are on offer.

5. Canada’s top-rated real estate app, trusted by thousands

Don’t take our word for it! HouseSigma is Canada’s top-rated real estate app in both the App Store and the Google Play Store, being rated higher on both platforms than any other Canadian listing app. HouseSigma also has thousands of five-star reviews on TrustPilot.

Check out what one client, Jackie, had to say in her five-star Trust Pilot review after both buying and selling homes with HouseSigma:

“Our real estate agent Sam Ehsan made our buying/selling experience much less stressful than we expected. He negotiated great prices for both houses and handled stuff behind the scenes so that we didn’t have to deal with it. Sam being with HouseSigma was a benefit that we feel contributed to a quick sale of our house, because Sam took time and care to ensure our house was in the best position to sell. He took care of staging the house and having it cleaned prior to pictures. Overall our experience with Sam and HouseSigma was 5 stars.”

Jackie, HouseSigma client, via TrustPilot

We’re sure you’ll agree these are pretty compelling reasons to entrust your home sale with HouseSigma. So, next time you’re considering a home sale, you need look no further.

Ready for a free, no-obligation chat about your home sale? Fill in the form on this page and we’ll be in touch.

*1% listing fee only applicable when your home is listed over $699,995. The listing agreement signing and home purchase closing dates must be within six months of each other. If you list and sell before buying, a 1.5% listing fee will apply. The 0.5% bundle saving is issued as a rebate after the closing of your subsequent home purchase with a HouseSigma agent. Speak to your HouseSigma agent for more details.

The post Five great reasons why you should sell your home with HouseSigma appeared first on HouseSigma.

February’s real estate statistics still tell the story of a buyer’s market. The total number of homes sold in the GTA in February was 3,672, which was a fairly typical near-20% seasonal increase from January, but down 11.1% from a year ago. Across all home types, the median GTA sale price in February was $878,500, up 4.4% since January but 5.5% lower than a year ago.

February’s inventory sat at 19,129 active listings, giving buyers plenty of choice and negotiating room. Homes are still sitting on the market for 72 days on average, including instances where homes were de-listed and quickly re-listed. That’s well above the frenzied sales pace of previous years.

Is the market finding its floor?

However, there is an interesting development in home listing terminations and expirations, which dropped to 4,612 in February — nearly half the 10,781 recorded last September, after months of decline. This steady fall suggests sellers are increasingly pricing realistically from the start, rather than testing the market at aspirational prices and being forced to retreat. While there are no guarantees of how the market will move, when the gap between what sellers want and what buyers will pay starts to close, it’s typically one of the earliest indicators that a market is finding its floor.

For buyers, this could be a “pay attention” moment. The combination of still-lower prices, high inventory, and a motivated seller base that’s getting more pragmatic may represent the sweet spot — before spring competition potentially picks up and that leverage gradually disappears.

Condo prices down but showing recovery

Entry-level buyers looking for a condo may have a particularly good opportunity right now. The median condo price is $552,000, down from $602,250 a year ago — a saving of $50K, which is meaningful difference on a purchase of that size. But the price has risen twice in the past two months, and could continue to see an increase into the spring market.

“Sellers appear to be finally catching up to where the market really is, not where it used to be. We’re seeing more listings priced right from the start — and that’s a healthy adjustment for everyone. It’s an encouraging sign that confidence is returning as pricing becomes more grounded in today’s reality.”

Sammy Kohn, a leading HouseSigma agent in the GTA

Check out our newly interactive February 2026 GTA MarketWatch infographic, below, to see the full breakdown by property type and where the hottest communities are for listing activity. Just hover your mouse over the charts to see the precise data.

Find all your market trends data for the Greater Toronto Area here – and keep up to date with our Ontario blog page here.

The post Infographic: GTA buyer’s market window still open, but are there early signs of it closing? appeared first on HouseSigma.